How far will the U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran spread?
After the United States and Israel struck Iran on a large scale, it was reported that Iran is responding with missile and drone attacks against Israel and countries affiliated with the U.S. military in the Gulf region. As the front line in Lebanon opens, casualties and energy and logistics shocks appear to be increasing simultaneously.
Published
March 25, 2026
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News Desk
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Original text: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2dyz6p3weo
How the War Began: First Airstrikes and Immediate Escalation
The BBC reported that the conflict escalated rapidly as the United States and Israel launched widespread airstrikes against Iran in late February. The article describes the first wave of strikes as targeting missile infrastructure, military facilities, and leadership across Iran, including in Tehran.
It was reported that this conflict spread into a “regional theater” as Iran responded with missile and drone attacks against Israel and U.S. allies in the Gulf region. As of March 24, Israeli authorities said 16 civilians had been killed in missile attacks since the start of the war.
Inside Iran: leadership vacuum and attacks on nuclear and energy facilities
The biggest shock is the leadership vacuum. The BBC reported that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the first airstrike on February 28, and the Israeli military said that several senior members of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) were also killed.
The succession structure also appears to be shaky. According to the article, Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was named successor on March 8, and U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called him "injured and likely disfigured," a claim Iran denied. At the same time, it is explained that key nuclear and energy facilities such as Harg Island (major crude oil terminal) and South Pars (part of the world's largest gas field) were also included in the target of attack.
Iran's Counterattack: Missiles and Drones Spread to Israel and the Gulf Region
Iran reportedly responded by defining the airstrike as an “unprovoked and illegal attack.” The IRGC claimed that it targeted Israeli government and military facilities in Tel Aviv and other places, and in fact, according to Israel's count, it was reported that 16 civilians had been killed as of March 24.
The attacks were not limited to Israel. The BBC reported that countries with US military bases, such as Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, UAE, and Kuwait, as well as US allies such as Oman and Saudi Arabia, were also hit. In the Gulf region, at least 20 people have died so far, including 8 from the UAE and 6 from Kuwait, and most of them are said to be security guards or foreign workers.
Lebanon and the Sea: Why Another Front Is Open
In Lebanon, a new front was said to have opened on March 2 when Iran-backed Hezbollah launched rockets. Hezbollah claimed it was revenge for Khamenei's assassination, and Israel was reported to have responded by attacking southern and central Beirut and southern and eastern Lebanon.
Casualties are also accumulating rapidly. The BBC reported that as of March 24, Lebanon's Ministry of Health said 1,072 people had been killed in Israeli attacks (including 121 children), and the Lebanese government said more than 1 million people had fled their homes. Additionally, the fact that an Iranian warship was sunk by a U.S. submarine on March 4 in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka, killing at least 87 people, suggests that conflicts are continuing at sea as well.
Justification and diplomacy: ‘preemptive’ logic, nuclear program, breakdown of negotiations
Israel reportedly described the first strike as “pre-emptive to eliminate the threat.” The BBC reported that the U.S. side also made statements to the effect that it knew of Israel's actions in advance and made preemptive moves in anticipation of an Iranian attack targeting U.S. forces.
However, the background is interpreted to be the hostility that has continued since the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and mutual distrust surrounding the nuclear program. According to the article, the United States and Israel have claimed that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, a claim Iran has strongly denied. Additionally, the narrative that the airstrikes began “hours later” after Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the negotiations on February 27 shows where the diplomatic track broke off sharply.
Energy and Logistics Shock: Strait of Hormuz and Soaring Prices
The ramifications of war are evident most rapidly in energy and logistics. The BBC reported that the Strait of Hormuz was virtually blocked (a strategic point through which about 20% of the world's crude oil supply passes) and prices soared due to attacks on ships and energy infrastructure.
On March 21, Trump pressured Iran to fully open the strait “without threat” within 48 hours, and on March 23, he said he would hold off on striking energy infrastructure for five days after “good and productive” talks, showing that tensions are shifting between “military-negotiation.” Iran denied the negotiations, and on March 25, a military spokesman reportedly asked, “Is the internal conflict that bad?”
In the future, it seems likely that the next inflection point will be (1) the speed of restoration of actual traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, (2) the status of Mojtaba Khamenei and the reorganization of Iranian power, and (3) whether the Hezbollah-Israel front expands into a ground war. Personally, even as a leveraged ETF holding U.S. growth stocks (PLTR, TSLA), I can feel that the risk-on/risk-off in this situation can change rapidly on a daily basis. For the time being, we will need to keep an eye on the Gulf region's energy infrastructure, port and insurance costs, and changes in the tone of official announcements from the United States, Israel, and Iran.
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